Tuesday, April 12, 2005
SETI Calculator
BNL Now has two toys to offer
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The Graffiti Board has been posted before, but so far only two people have tried it.
The SETI Calculator is a very flexible implementation of the Classic Drake Equation. Not only can you calculate the Number of Extraterrestrial Civilizations in the galaxy, you can solve for any of the terms independently.
In addition to the classic Drake solver is a secondary equation solver, which is based on the outcome of the Drake result. By inputting various allowed communication distances, it not only calculates number of Civilizations, but Civilizations within communication distance.
Based on the defaults assigned, the SETI Calculator arrives at 37.5 E.T. Civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy, but if a communication distance of 100 hundred light years is assumed shows only a 35 out of 100000 or 0.035% chance of detecting one of them. This 100 light year distance was arrived at by the approximate distance we could detect a signal from a radio dish like the one at Arecibo if it were aimed at us and transmitting. Solving the other way (assuming the other numbers are reasonable) for one civilization to be detectable we would have to be able to hear/see/detect them from 1417 light years away. New technology or other methods (laser SETI for instance) probably will someday bring an ET civilization within our viewing range if they exist. And of course it isn’t just our ability to detect, but the strength of the signals sent our way -- if they are strong enough signals, then ET may already be within our viewing horizon.
I wrote this Perl based web CGI and posted it to the SETI discussion forum at Space.com about three or four years ago. It is a shame that crop circle believers and UFO abduction conspiracy kooks dominate that discussion group. I gave up any hope of rational discussion there.
